新凯恩斯主义货币政策分析框架及其未来发展方向  

The New Keynesian Framework for Monetary Policy Analysis and Its Orientation in the Future

作　　者：邵立[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学,上海200433

出　　处：《上海金融》2010年第12期41-46,共6页Shanghai Finance

摘　　要：20世纪90年代以来,货币政策实践和理论研究都发生了显著的变化。新凯恩斯主义框架在综合了凯恩斯主义和真实经济周期理论的研究成果,并吸收通货膨胀目标制的实践经验之后,已逐步发展为当前货币政策分析的主流框架。然而,该理论框架仍然存在一些不尽完美之处,并且在预防和应对本次金融危机方面表现得不尽如人意。本文首先介绍了新凯恩斯主义框架的基本理论模型,而后总结了其给出的全新政策涵义和存在的不足之处,最后指出其面临的挑战及未来发展方向。The practice and academic research in monetary policy have made remarkable progresses since 1990＇s.By synthesizing achievements of Keynesian School and real business cycle theory,then assimilating experience from inflation targeting countries,the New Keynesian has gradually become the most popular framework for monetary policy analysis.Nonetheless,it does not seem perfect and did not well perform in preventing and reacting to the current financial crisis.In this paper,the author introduces a basic academic model of New Keynesian,and summarizes the new perspectives it exhibits and its shortcomings,then finally points out the challenges it faces and the orientation in the future.

关 键 词：新凯恩斯主义 自然利率 产出缺口 通货膨胀目标制 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]