荆州长江大桥船舶到达规律分析及检验  

Examination and analysis of vessel traffic flow distribution in Jingzhou bridge area

作　　者：刘亮[1,2] 刘敬贤[3] 谭志荣[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,武汉430063 [2]长江海事局,武汉430016 [3]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2010年第4期8-10,共3页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：交通部西部交通建设科技项目(2009328811640)

摘　　要：为加强长江中游浅区河段的交通安全预警管理,提出基于船舶流概念的内河船舶运行规律分析方法,采集2008—2009年荆州长江大桥船舶交通流量观测数据进行实证研究.参考国家标准,使用双侧检验的方法对泊松分布参数进行假设检验.结果表明:荆州长江大桥水域船舶在短间隔时间内进入桥区的概率分布符合泊松分布.Inland waterway vessel traffic flow was discussed by using the statistic data during the year of 2008-2009 in Jingzhou Yangtze river bridge,and thereby the arriving distribution model was proposed based on concept of vessel traffic flow to strengthen the transportation safety early-warning management in the shallow water channel.In accordance with the statistical interpretation of data,the parameter of arriving distribution model was examined.Results show that the probability distribution of the arriving distribution model fits Passion distribution in short interval time.

关 键 词：内河 船舶流量 泊松分布 假设检验 二项分布 

分 类 号：U653.1[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]