基于Kalman算法的网络安全态势预测方法  

A Method of Network Security Situation Prediction Based on Kalman Algorithm

作　　者：向西西[1] 黄宏光[1] 李予东[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2010年第12期113-116,共4页Computer Simulation

摘　　要：关于网络安全的预防研究,为解决现有网络安全态势感知模型只能对过去和当前时刻的网络安全态势进行分析,而不能对安全态势进行预测的问题,基于卡尔曼算法提出了一种网络安全态势的预测方法,能够利用当前和过去的安全态势值,对网络安全态势进行预测。仿真结果表明,该算法不仅能够反映网络安全态势变化的整体趋势,还能够有效地对态势值进行预测。与传统的GM(1,1)相比有更好的预测价值;与RBF算法相比,更能适用于真实的网络环境。Network Security Situational Awareness has become the orientation of research in the field of network security.Already existing research achievements have given out some models of networks security situation assessment,but these models can only analyze the situation of the past and the present,but can not predict the situation of networks security.Aiming at the problem,the paper presents a method based on Kalman algorithm.Using the value of the present and the past,the method can predict the value of future situationf.Experiment results show that this method can not only reflect the trend of the network security situation,but also predict the precious value of trend.Comparing with the GM（1,1） and RBF algorithm,the prediction with this method is more precise,and is more suitable for the networks.

关 键 词：人工免疫 网络安全 网络安全态势 卡尔曼算法 预测 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]