多模式集成MOS方法在精细化温度预报中的应用  

Multi-model compositive MOS method application of fine temperature forecast

作　　者：张秀年[1,2] 曹杰[1] 杨素雨[2] 札明辉[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学资源与环境学院,云南昆明650091 [2]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期67-71,76,共6页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：云南省社会发展科技计划(2009CA023);国家气象局2010行业专项"地形复杂地区的MOS预报研究";2009业务能力建设重点项目"强降水天气过程主客观预报方法研究及系统建设"共同资助

摘　　要：利用T213和ECMWF模式产品,对集成MOS预报方法在温度预报方面做了研究试验,并将其与单模式MOS预报方法进行了对比分析.研究结果表明,多模式集成MOS预报方法与传统MOS预报方法相比,预报水平有了进一步的提高,它能同时充分利用多个模式产品的有用信息,吸取其各自的优点,做出更好的预报.在系统程序设计时,给各因子附带一身份识别参数,解决了多模式数据处理的复杂性问题.试验过程中发现,各季节的MOS温度预报水平存在较明显的差异,特别是夏季的预报水平明显高于其它三季,其原因主要是夏季每日最高、最低温度的变率较小,使其预报相对容易,但MOS方法对预报水平仍有较大贡献.By using T213 and ECMWF model products,the multi-model compositive MOS method has been researched and tested in temperature forecasting.And it has been compared to the single-model MOS method also.It has been found that multi-model method overmatch the single-model method in forecasting obviously.The multi-model MOS method can use useful information and advantages of multiple models＇ products and make better forecast.In system designing,the identification of factors has been drawn into to solve the problem of multi-model data complexity.During the test,it has been found there are some obvious differences of temperature forecasting in each season.Especially the summer＇s level is higher than the other three seasons.The main reason is that the daily minimum and maximum temperature changed less in summer then in the others.It makes the forecast to be more easily.But the MOS method still devotes great contributions.

关 键 词：集成MOS方法 多模式 数值产品释用 温度预报 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]