中长期负荷预测的计量经济学与系统动力学组合模型  

A Model Integrating Econometric Approach With System Dynamics for Long-Term Load Forecasting

作　　者：谭忠富[1] 张金良[1] 吴良器[1] 丁亚伟 宋艺航[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力经济研究所,北京市昌平区102206 [2]河南洛阳供电公司,河南省洛阳市471009

出　　处：《电网技术》2011年第1期186-190,共5页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071053)~~

摘　　要：电力系统中的长期负荷预测受政治、经济、人口、气候等各种随机因素的影响,单一的预测方法很难提高预测精度。为此,提出一种基于计量经济学和系统动力学的组合方法。首先,利用计量经济学的方法找出电力需求的主要影响因素,在此基础上建立电力需求与其影响因子的计量方程;其次,建立考虑人口、经济及环境的可持续发展的系统动力学电力需求预测模型;最后将人口、经济、电力需求的子系统方程带入系统动力学模型进行预测。实际算例结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度。The medium- and long-term load prediction of power system are influenced by enchancement factor such as politics, economy, population and climate, therefore practical experiences show that it is hard to improve prediction accuracy by single forecasting model. For this reason, the authors propose a combined forecasting method based on econometrics and system dynamics. Firstly, using econometric approach the main factors influencing power demand are found, on this basis the econometric equations are established for power demand and its impacting factors; then, a system dynamics-based power demand forecasting model, in which the population as well as sustainable development of economy and environment are taken into account, is built; finally, the subsystem equations related to population, economy and power demand are put into the system dynamics-based model to carry out load forecasting. Forecasting results show that the proposed method can improve prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：计量经济学 系统动力学 负荷预测 可持续发展 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]