我国CO_2减排目标的经济学分析与效果评价  

Economic analysis and effectiveness evaluation on China's CO_2 emission mitigation target

作　　者：何建坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学低碳能源实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《科学学研究》2011年第1期9-17,共9页Studies in Science of Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(05JJD630035);国家自然科学基金委员会重点项目(90410016)

摘　　要：就GDP的CO2排放强度下降率、GDP能源强度下降率、能源消费的CO2排放因子下降率、非化石能源在能源品种构成中增长率等影响减缓CO2排放的因素间的相互关系进行了数学推导和计算,进而测算了我国从1990-2005年GDP能源强度下降的影响因素中,技术节能的贡献率约为56%,而结构节能的贡献率44%。2005-2020年情景分析方案中,对促进GDP的CO2强度下降的贡献因素中,技术节能约为43%,结构节能约为37%,而能源结构改善的贡献率也可达20%,可再生能源和先进核能技术的发展对未来减缓CO2排放将起越来越重要的作用。同时文中还分析了CO2排放实现零增长和负增长目标时各项相关指标需达到的条件。The paper derives and calculates the mutual relations among the CO2 emissions mitigation factors, such as the reduction rate of GDP CO2 emissions intensity, the reduction rate of GDP energy intensity, the reduction rate of CO2 intensity of energy consumption, and the increase rate of non - fossil energy share in primary energy consumption, and then analyzes the factors of China~ GDP energy intensity reduction from 1990 to 2005. it shows that the contribution rate of technical energy saving was about 56% , while the contribution rate of structural energy saving was about 44%. The scenario analysis from 2005 to 2020 illustrate that the contribution rate of technical energy saving and structural energy saving will be 43% and 37% respectively, while the contribution rate of energy supply structure change will be 20% , and the renewable energy and advanced nuclear power technology development can play an increasingly important role in the reduction of GDP CO2 intensity.

关 键 词：气候变化 GDP能源强度 低碳经济 碳强度 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]