基于Budyko假设评估洮儿河流域中上游气候变化的径流影响  

Impacts of Climate Variability on Streamflow in the Upper and Middle Reaches of the Taoer River Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

作　　者：李斌[1,2] 李丽娟[1] 覃驭楚 梁丽乔[1] 李九一[1] 柳玉梅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]The Royal Institute of Technology(KTH),Stockholm,Sweden

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第1期70-76,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院方向性项目:“松嫩-三江平原流域水资源承载力研究”(编号:KZCX2-YW-Q06-1);欧盟第六框架计划项目(编号:SWITCH-018530)

摘　　要：洮儿河流域中上游为我国东北典型生态敏感地区,近几十年来由于受到人类活动与气候变化的综合影响,一系列生态问题开始凸显。为更好的进行水资源管理,迫切需要准确评估气候变化及人类活动对径流的影响。本文基于Penman-Monteith公式计算研究区及其周边气象站点的潜在蒸散发,采用非参数Mann-Kendall检验及滑动T检验识别径流、降水及潜在蒸散发的趋势及突变点。发现作为整个研究区控制站点,洮南站年径流具有明显上升趋势并以1985年为突变点,据此将研究时段划分为基准期及变化期。然后利用降水及潜在蒸散数据,基于6种Budyko公式评估气候变化对年径流影响,结果表明气候因素约占45%。研究结论证实了人类活动对流域水文过程的确具有显著影响,增进了对该区水文水资源的认识。The upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, representing an ecologically sensitive area in northeastern China, has undergone a combined impact of climate change and human activities （e.g., rapid agricultural and industrial development） since 1961. A series of environmental problems are becoming prominent and a great alteration of the streamflow was reported. There is therefore an urgent need to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow to facilitate water resources management in this region. Streamflows during the period 1961-2000 from several gauged stations of three selected sub-catchments and the entire upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, including Charlson, Gaojiatun, Dashizhai and Taonan, were used. Ten precipitation stations and nine meteorological stations located in or around the basin were selected. The potential evapotranspiration of the study river basin was calculated with mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, sunshine hour, and wind speed for the study period in conjunction with the FAO56 Penman Monteith equation. The precipitation observations and calculated potential evapotranspiration were spatially averaged across the study area. A digital elevation model （DEM） with a grid resolution 100m × 100m was used. Land use maps in the early 1970s, 1986 and 2000 with a spatial scale of 1：100,000 were obtained. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test were jointly used to identify trends and point mutations contained in the streamflow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration time series. Results show a marked upward trend for annual streamflows, and that an abrupt change was identified in year 1985 at the Taonan station, the outlet of the entire river basin. In general, the streamflows show agreement with changing patterns in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, although a discrepancy of about two years was observed. The streamflow time series were then divided into the baseline period a

关 键 词：径流 气候变化 人类活动 Budyko曲线 突变 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]