东北三省玉米生产区位优势变异及趋势预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Location Advantage on Maize Production in Northeast of China

作　　者：舒坤良[1,2] 张雪清[3] 徐晓红[2] 杨双[2] 郭庆海[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学经济管理学院,吉林长春130118 [2]吉林省农业科学院,东北区域农业发展研究中心,吉林长春130033 [3]吉林省农业科学院,农业经济与信息服务中心,吉林长春130033

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2011年第1期11-14,40,共5页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：科技部支撑项目专题:玉米生产风险预警模型研制及预警系统实证研究(2009BADA9B03-05);国家自然科学基金:中国农户粮作经营行为与效率的实证研究--以粮食主产区东北三省为例(71073068)

摘　　要：基于全国及东北三省粮食生产的时间序列数据,运用区位熵模型,研究了东北三省自1978年以来玉米生产的区位优势变异,运用ARIMA模型预测了2010-2015年东北三省玉米生产区位优势变异趋势。结果表明:1978年以来,东北三省玉米生产较全国总体水平均具有区位优势,区位熵排序为吉林第一,辽宁第二,黑龙江第三,但区位优势均呈现出总体下降趋势。在不考虑外生变量影响的前提下,东北三省2010-2015年玉米产能均会小幅上升,辽宁和吉林的玉米生产区位优势将进一步弱化,而黑龙江将呈现出小幅度波动但总体更为平稳。为稳固东北三省玉米生产区位优势,可从核心产区建设和内涵式增产两方面着手。The authors studied variation of regional advantage on maize production in northeast of China by location quotient theory based on time-series data of grain production from 1978. And predicted its trend by ARIMA model from 2010 to 2015. The results shown that Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang all had location advantages comparing to the overall level of China in maize production from 1978. The location advantage of Jilin prior to Liaoning, and Liaoning to Heilongjiang, and their location advantages showed downward trend overall from 1978. The maize capacity of Northeast will rise slightly from 2010 to 2015 without considering the impact of exogenous variables, but the location advantage of Jilin and Liaoning will be further weakened as Heilongjiang take on modest fluctuations but more smooth. In order to stabilize the location advantage on maize production of Northeast, we can take core maize producing area construction and improve yields by technology progress as main strategies.

关 键 词：玉米 区位熵 区位优势 ARIMA模型 趋势预测 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] S513[农业科学—作物学]