我国二氧化碳排放的特点及影响因素分析  

Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions

作　　者：李国志[1,2] 李宗植[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210016 [2]江西农业大学南昌商学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《广西财经学院学报》2011年第1期56-62,共7页Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：对我国30个省份1995年—2007年的二氧化碳排放量进行了测算,在此基础上,利用STIRPAT模型对碳排放与各影响因素之间的关系进行分析,并利用Kaya方法对碳排放变化进行因素分解。结果表明,碳排放与经济增长之间呈现"U"型曲线关系,并且存在较强的排放惯性。因素分解结果显示,经济增长是碳排放最主要的驱动因素,技术进步对碳减排有较强的促进作用但具有一定随机性,能源消费结构和人口规模对碳排放影响不明显。基于上述,本文提出相关建议。In this paper,the authors calculated the carbon dioxide emissions of 30 provinces in China from 1995 to 2007 then,on this basis,using STIRPAT model,analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions and the factors,and decomposed the carbon emissions changes using Kaya method.The results showed that,carbon emissions and economic growth show a ＂U＂ shaped curve relationship,and there is strong emission inertia.Factor decomposition showed that,economic growth is the most important driving factor of carbon emissions,technological progress plays a strong role in reducing carbon emissions but with certain randomness,and the energy consumption structure and population size have no obvious effect on carbon emissions.Based on the above,this paper presented relevant recommendations.

关 键 词：二氧化碳排放 影响因素 STIRPAT模型 Kaya模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]