服务出口与实际汇率动态关系分析:基于美国数据的考察  

Analysis on Dynamic Relationship between Services Export and Real Exchange Rate:Based on American Data

作　　者：邱小欢[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学国际经济与贸易系,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2011年第1期15-24,共10页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目"中国经济内外均衡的协调研究:理论;证据与政策"(06JJD790030)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：基于代表性家庭追求效用最大化,文中构建了一个由外国实际收入、汇率水平、货物出口以及经GARCH(1,1)模型估计所得条件方差作为汇率风险代理变量组成的服务出口方程。采用自回归分布滞后估计方程参数,并将汇率变动影响货物出口进而传导至服务出口的间接效应纳入分析框架。估计结果显示,汇率水平变动与服务出口之间存在负相关关系,而汇率风险却有助于推动服务出口;汇率变动对服务出口的累积净效应表明,汇率水平变动是汇率变动对服务出口最终影响效应的主导因素。最后从我国汇率变动与服务贸易发展角度也证实了该结论。This paper constructs a services export model composed of the foreign actual income,exchange rate,goods export and the conditional variance estimated by GARCH（1,1） model as the proxy variable of exchange rate risk.In view of the lags of variables,the paper adopts the ADL model to estimate the equation parameters,and brings the indirect effects of the exchange rate to services export transmitted by goods export into the analysis framework.The final results show that there will be a negative relationship between the exchange rate fluctuation and services export,while exchange rate risk will push services export.The analysis of the cumulative net effect also shows that the exchange rate fluctuation is the dominant factor of the total effects of exchange rate to services export.

关 键 词：服务出口 实际有效汇率 效应 GARCH ADL 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]