居民消费支出疲软的原因解析  

Analysis on The weakness of Household Consumption Expenditures in China

作　　者：李刚[1] 杜丽娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北理工大学经济管理学院,河北唐山063000

出　　处：《河北理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第1期32-35,共4页Journal of Hebei Polytechnic University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：根据我国从1978年到2007年的数据,用Eviews5.0拟合了GDP与居民消费、全社会固定资产投资、出口之间的系数关系并结合马克思的消费理论以及政府工作报告,肯定了消费对经济增长的重要性。从居民消费、全社固定资产投资、出口三者占GDP比例的变化趋势以及全社会固定资产投资、出口对消费影响的角度,用Eviews5.0软件分析了三者的比例变化趋势特征以及居民消费对其余两者的弹性特征,得出居民消费占GDP比例不可避免的下降是消费疲软的原因,指出全社会固定资产投资、出口两者占GDP比例数值的适当下降有利于改善消费疲软的困境、三者之间数值的适当比例关系研究应是研究的方向。based on China＇s data from1978 to 2007 which been applied by the software of Eviews 5.0 and fitted the coefficients of household consumption,total investment in fixed assets and export for its GDP,Marxist theory of consumption and the central government work reports of the last decade years,the paper firstly emphasizes the importance of household consumption on economic growth.Then from the view of time series of the ratios of household consumption,total investment in fixed assets,export to GDP and from the view of the influences of total investment in fixed assets and export on household consumption,the paper,applying the software of Eviews 5.0,analyses the trend features of the three ratios and the characteristics of the elasticity of the ratio of household consumption to GDP to the other two ratios which tells that the indispensable decline of the ratio of household consumption to GDP is the reason of the weakness of household consumption and the decline of the other two ratios can better the condition of household consumption.The paper also points out that the study on the appropriate structure among the three ratios for sustainable economic development should been concerned.

关 键 词：居民消费支出 消费疲软 GDP比例结构 

分 类 号：F713.5[经济管理—市场营销]