基于需求层次模型的产品发展趋势预测方法  

Forecast Methods of Product Development Trends Based on Hierarchical Model

作　　者：蒲娟[1] 李彦[1] 李文强[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学创新方法与创新设计四川省重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《包装工程》2011年第4期36-39,共4页Packaging Engineering

基　　金：科技部创新方法专项(2009IM040200)

摘　　要：提出了一种从用户产品需求进化规律来定位目前产品发展阶段,寻找产品改进方向,预测未来发展趋势的方法。该方法建立了用户需求层次模型和用户需求到产品特性之间的映射关系,采用模糊聚类分析法对产品特征进行聚类分析,并用分析结果进行产品预测。最后以插线板特征分析为例,验证了该方法的可行性。A new method to locate the current stage of product development was put forward.By this method,the direction of product improvement and future trends could be forecasted.A Hierarchical model of the development of consumers′ requirements and a mapping relationship between consumers′ requirements and product features were established.The product attributes were analyzed with Fuzzy cluster analysis.According to the result,the future trends of product could be forecasted.Finally,it is validated that the method can be well used through Strip attributes analysis.

关 键 词：马斯洛需求层次理论 产品特性 产品特征 模糊聚类 

分 类 号：TB472[一般工业技术—工业设计]