1959-2004年东江流域气温变化特征分析  

CHARACTERISING VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE IN THE DONGJIANG RIVER BASIN FROM 1959 TO 2004

作　　者：董满宇[1] 江源[1] 熊兴[1] 任斐鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第6期733-737,共5页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项资助项目(2008ZX07526-002-04);地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室资助项目(070104)

摘　　要：运用非参数检验法Mann-Kendall、R/S及功率谱分析方法对东江流域1959—2004年气温变化特征进行分析,结果表明:近50 a来东江流域年平均气温变化存在显著的增温趋势,增温速率为0.17℃.(10 a)-1,其中冬季对整个流域年平均气温增温贡献率最大,流域年、季平均气温变化趋势的空间分布格局基本一致;东江流域全年、夏、秋季平均气温存在明显的变化周期,分别为2.31、2.5、30 a;流域年、季平均气温突变年份有所不同,全年、冬季在1994年左右发生突变.Variations of temperature in Dongjiang River basin from 1959 to 2004 were analyzed by nonparametric statistical methods of Mann-Kendall,R/S,and power spectral analysis.Data showed that mean annual air temperature in Dongjiang River basin showed significant increase,at a rate of 0.17℃·（10 a）^-1,mainly due to higher mean winter air temperature.Spatial distribution of long-term mean annual and seasonal air temperature changes was uniform.Mean temperature showed oscillatory pattern with 2.3,2.5,30-year cycles,for whole year,summer,and autumn respectively.Years showing abrupt change in mean annual and seasonal air temperature were different;for whole year and for winter,sudden changes in temperature occurred in 1994

关 键 词：气温变化 趋势分析 突变 周期性 东江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]