基于突变理论的西王寨矿区矿井疏干水开发利用风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Mine Dewatering Water Exploitation and Utilization in Xiwangzhai Mine Area Based on Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：王天平[1] 解建仓[1] 张建龙[1] 张琛[1] 申瑜[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]山西省水文水资源勘测局,山西太原030001

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2010年第4期417-423,共7页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

基　　金：中国水利水电科学研究院开放基金资助项目(IWHRO2009015);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079120);国家"863"计划基金资助项目(2006AA01A126);陕西省教育厅2009年科学技术研究计划基金资助项目(09JK657)

摘　　要：以突变理论为基础,对于西王寨井田矿区,构建出17项风险评价指标体系,并结合模糊数学产生一种多维的突变模糊隶属度值以进行突变级别的转变,由最底层指标开始逐步向上层计算,利用相应的突变模型计算风险评价值。结果表明:17项指标中能够构成重险的指标包括含水层渗透系数、水柱高度和人口增长率,其余各指标均在中度风险及以下等级;复合指标中,地区水资源总量特征、疏干水涌水量以及开发利用状况风险水平较高,且该地区社会经济状况指标的隶属度也较高;矿区疏干水开发利用的综合风险值为0.773 2,属于中度风险等级。Based on the catastrophe theory,the 17 risk evalication index system aiming at Xingwangzhai mine area is established,and a kind of multi-dimensional fuzzy membership values is produced so as to carry out the mutation level changes in combination with fuzzy math.Accordingly,the calculation should be started gradually from the lowest bottom to the upper indexes.The corresponding catastrophe model is used to calculate the risk assessment values.The results indicate that the indicators which are able to constitute the heavy risks among the 17 indicators include the aquifer permeability coefficient,water column height and population growth rate,and that the rest of other indicators are under the moderate risks and the grades,among the compound indicators,the total amount behaviors of water resources,the dewatering water surging amount and the risk level of exploitation and utilization situation are much high and so high are the membership degrees of socio-economic situation indexes in this region.The intergrated risk value of dewatering water exploiation and utilization in mine area is 0773 2,thus,falling into the medium risk rating.Using catastrophe theory risk assessment can be used for the dewatering water guidance and planning.

关 键 词：矿井疏干水 风险 突变理论 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]