基于多性能参数的民用航空发动机实时性能可靠性预测  

Real-time performance reliability prediction for civil aviation aircraft engines based on multiple performance measures

作　　者：任淑红[1] 左洪福[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016

出　　处：《航空动力学报》2010年第12期2811-2815,共5页Journal of Aerospace Power

基　　金：国家自然基金委员会与中国民用航空总局联合资助(60672164;60939003);国家高技术研究发展计划(2006AA04Z427)

摘　　要：以民用航空发动机为研究对象,运用性能退化可靠性理论,对发动机的性能可靠性进行了研究.通过分析发动机性能退化过程,利用状态空间方法建立了时变性能退化模型,并通过卡尔曼滤波对性能趋势进行预测;然后考虑各性能参数之间的相关性,运用随机过程理论建立了基于多性能参数的实时性能可靠性预测模型,从而对发动机的退化时间进行实时预测;最后通过实例证明该方法是有效的,并且易于工程实现,同时,也为航空公司进行发动机机队科学管理提供了基础.The civil aviation aircraft engine was studied in this paper,and the performance reliability of the engine was also studied by use of performance degradation theory.Firstly,by analyzing the performance degradation process of the engine,the time-varying performance degradation model based on state space method was built,and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering.Then,considering the correlation of multiple performance parameters,the real-time performance reliability prediction model was developed by using stochastic process theory to predict the degradation time of engines.These models were applied to practical situations.It shows that the proposed methods are feasible and the prediction accuracy meets the needs of the project.Also,it provides a foundation for scientific management of engine fleet of airlines.

关 键 词：可靠性 卡尔曼滤波 随机过程 民用航空发动机 性能衰退 

分 类 号：V23[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]