污染-经济时间弹性概念、方法与应用  

Concept,Method and Application of the Pollution-Economy Time Elasticity

作　　者：毛显强[1] 杨舒茜[1] 刘昭阳[1] 邢有凯[1] 刘胜强[1] 汤维[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第2期1-5,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划973课题(项目编号:2005CB724204)

摘　　要：环境污染随着经济发展的进程不断变化。为更加全面、准确地描述环境污染与经济发展的关系,本文将"弹性"分析方法应用于描述环境污染指标与经济发展指标之间的关系,提出"污染-经济时间弹性"概念,即一个国家或地区环境污染指标的年际变化率与相应的该国家或地区经济指标年际变化率的比值。文章进而分析了PETE的环境经济学含义及其计算方法。指标PETE能够用来描述一个国家或地区经济发展的清洁程度,通常情况下,较低的PETE值意味着较为清洁的增长方式,而较高的PETE值则多与粗放和非清洁的增长方式相联系;利用PETE还可以对空间(国家,地区)上和行业间的经济增长方式进行比较。文章最后通过1999-2008年中国环境污染指标(全社会主要污染物SO2、COD和烟尘排放量)数据和相应时间段的经济发展指标(GDP)数据,计算中国全社会主要污染物排放与经济发展的"污染-经济时间弹性(PETE)",发现该指标确能反映"经济发展的环境效率"的动态变化,即为着获得一定的经济发展速度所付出环境代价之动态变化情状,验证了PETE概念和方法的科学性和实用性。PETE概念和方法的提出,为环境-经济分析提供了新的分析指标和工具。Environmental pollution changes as the economy develops.This paper uses ＂elasticity＂ methodology to describe the relationship between environmental pollution indicators and economic development indicators with a newly created concept named ＂Pollution-Economy Time Elasticity＂（PETE）,which is basically the ratio of the annual variation of pollution indicators to the annual variation of economy indicators.PETE＇s environmental economics implication and calculation method are also discussed.PETE could be used to describe the cleanliness of the economy development;in most situations,lower PETE means cleaner economy growth,while higher PETE could be associated with extensive and unclean development style.PETE could also be used to make comparison of the economy growth quality or efficiency in different areas or different industries.Then an example of application of PETE is taken with the data of national total pollutants（SO2,COD and dust） emission and GDP during 1999-2008.The example shows that PETE can reflect ＂the environmental efficiency of economic development＂,and illustrate how environmental situation changes dynamically in proportion to the economic development.This example validates PETE a robust and practical indicator for environment-economy analysis.

关 键 词：污染-经济时间弹性 环境污染 经济发展 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]