大型枢纽机场可持续发展综合指数测度及预警  

A Study on Quantitative Measurement and Early Warning of Sustainable Development for Large Hub Airports

作　　者：赵海波[1,2] 孟春[3] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [2]上海机场集团有限公司,上海200335 [3]宁波大学建筑工程与环境学院,宁波315211

出　　处：《上海环境科学》2011年第1期1-5,11,共6页Shanghai Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目，编号：70972072;上海市重点学科建设资助项目，编号：B310

摘　　要：针对大型枢纽机场停车乱、航空噪声突出、航空垃圾处理不力、机场运营对生态环境质量的影响等多种问题,研究探讨大型枢纽机场可持续发展定量测度及预警问题。构建多目标多子系统简洁实用型指标体系。利用综合指数法给出大型枢纽机场可持续发展综合度测度模型,采用AHP-熵主客观综合赋权法确定各指标权重。建立大型枢纽机场可持续发展动态诊断预警系统,运用灰色人工神经网络最优组合预测法对指标属性值进行预测。对上海浦东机场进行可持续发展预警实例分析,结果表明,研究样本期内系统运行处于轻警区,大型枢纽机场可持续发展预警系统可行,具有满足实际部门应用的能力。Quantitative measurement and early warning of sustainable development for large hub airports were studied. A set of multi-objective and multi-subsystem indicators has been established. A composite scale measure model has been given by using a comprehensive index method, and the AHP-entropy integrated weighting method was used to determine the indicators＇ weights. A diagnosis early warning system of sustainable development for large hub airports has been constructed, and an optimal combination method of gray artificial neural network was applied to forecasting the values of indicators. A case study of Shanghai Pudong Airport was carried through and the results showed that the system operated in light alarm zone during the study sample. It has been concluded that the earJy warning system of sustainable development for large hub airports is feasible and has the ability to meet the application in certain real sectors.

关 键 词：大型枢纽机场 可持续发展 综合指数测度模型 诊断预警 上海市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]