引滦入津工程黎河段机理与非机理水质预测模型对比分析  

Comparative analysis of mechanism and non mechanism water quality prediction model of Lihe sector in Luanhe diversion to Tianjin water project

作　　者：张晨[1] 王立义[2] 高英[2] 高学平[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]天津市水利局引滦工程管理处,天津301900

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2011年第1期149-152,共4页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50909070)

摘　　要：根据引滦人津上程黎河输水河道水文水质监测资料,分别建立河道机理水质模型和非机理水质模型,对2005年前毛庄断面的氯化物和氨氮进行了预测。两种水质模型建立的理论基础、求解方法、参数验证、模拟所需的数据种类和时段、适用状况、预测精度均不同。对两种河道水质模型预测结果精度进行了比较,结果表明,预测误差均小于20%,机理水质模型较非机理精度高。研究表明,机理水质模型适合于短时间内黎河河道水质变化的精细模拟,非机理模型适合于中长期水质变化趋势预测。The paper wishes to introduce its authors＇ study on the comparison of two water quality prediction methods. So far, little attention has for the time being been paid to the study of rational and irrational water quality. Based on the field-study data of hydrology and water quality of Lihe River in the Luanhe River-Tianjin water diversion project, mechanism and non-mechanism water quality model of the river were established. Two model prediction methods of river water quality, which consider modeling process, necessary data for simulation, application condition and prediction accuracy were compared. To note, the applied theory, solution, verification, necessary data and prediction accuracy of both water quality models are all different. The application of these two models in predicting the concentration of water quality indexes （ chloride and ammonia nitrogen, for example） in the Qianmaozhuang section indicated satisfying precision. The relative errors of mechanism and non-mechanism model results were within 12% and 20%, respectively. The results exhibited that prediction accuracy of mechanism model was better than nonmechanism model. It revealed that mechanism water quality model is beneficial to s precisely simulate the pollutant transport and diffusion of Lihe River in a short term. Correspondingly, non-mechanism water quality model is beneficial to predict the changes of river water quality for long term. The comparative analysis of two models has provided an applicable method for water quality simulation. It can thus be able to provide technical support and reference to simulating the water quality of other rivers.

关 键 词：环境水利 机理水质模型 非机理水质模型 水质预测 河道 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]