辽宁农村居民消费支出的灰色预测及因素分析  

Gray Prediction and Analysis Impact Factors on Liaoning Rural Consumption Expenditure

作　　者：刘培路[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁石油化工大学经济管理学院,辽宁抚顺113001

出　　处：《辽宁石油化工大学学报》2011年第1期79-83,共5页Journal of Liaoning Petrochemical University

摘　　要：以2001-2009年辽宁省农村居民人均生活消费支出为研究对象,应用灰色系统理论建立GM(1,1)模型,预测了未来4年辽宁省农村人均消费支出发展趋势,并运用灰色关联方法分析了影响消费支出8类因素的关联程度和关联序。预测及分析结果表明,未来4年辽宁省农村居民人均消费支出仍以较快速度增长,预计平均年增长率将达到14.4%;与消费支出关系最为密切的三大因素依次是衣着、教育文化娱乐服务、家庭设备用品及服务,这充分说明用于基本生活的食品消费比例在下降,农村居民的消费倾向逐渐由追求数量向注重质量转移。The subjects of this article are the per-capita living expenses of the rural in Liaoning province from 2001 to 2009.Apply grey system theory to establish a model of the GM（1,1）,which predicts the tendency of the coming four years per-capita consumption expenditure of the Liaoning rural,and use application of grey correlation assessment method for human resource management to analyze the relevant factors and the degree sequence which affect eight kind of factors of consumption expenditures.Forecast and the analysis results show that the coming four years per-capita consumption expenditure of the Liaoning rural is still at a high speed of growth,the average growth is expected to reach 14.4%.The three major factors which are related to consumption expenditure are clothes,education,culture and entertainment services,and that of household equipment,supplies and services.This fully demonstrates that the food consumption which is used for basic necessities is decreasing and the people＇s consumption trends are transferred from chasing quantity expansion to quality.

关 键 词：消费支出 GM(1 1) 预测 关联度 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济]