住宅价格与居民收入均衡关系及住房支付能力稳定性  

The Balance between House Prices and Household Income and the Stability of Housing Affordability

作　　者：沈悦[1] 张学峰[1] 周奎省[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《财经研究》2011年第3期81-92,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目"基于正反馈机制的住宅价格异常波动及宏观调控研究"(08JA790100);国家社会科学基金项目"基于系统动力学的住宅价格异常波动及宏观调控研究"(08XJY002);国家自然科学基金项目"住宅价格变化的系统动力学仿真模拟研究"(71073123)

摘　　要：文章通过聚类分析将35个大中城市按2000-2009年住宅价格分为四组,结合面板单位根、协整和格兰杰因果检验对住宅价格和居民收入的均衡关系进行了分析,并运用FMOLS模型探讨了住房支付能力稳定性问题。分析表明:35个大中城市的住宅价格和居民收入之间存在长期均衡关系,但支付能力稳定性比较弱;住宅价格和居民收入互为因果关系;住房支付能力稳定性弱不是普遍现象,仅存在于高房价城市;除收入外,城市的食品消费、医疗、教育和交通通信等软硬件设施也是影响住宅价格的重要因素。This paper divides 35 large-and-medium-sized cities from 2000 to 2009 into four groups with regard to house prices by cluster analysis. Then it analyzes the equilibrium relationship Between house prices and household income by panel unit root, panel co-integration, and panel Granger causality test, and discusses the stability of housing affordability by FMOLS model. The results are shown as follows, firstly, generally speaking, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship Between house prices and household income in the 35 large-and-medium-sized cities, but the stability of housing affordability is very weak; secondly, there exists Bilateral causality between house prices and household income＇ thirdly, the problem of the weak stability of housing affordability is not common, which only exists in the cities with higher house prices; fourthly, besides income, hardware and software facilities in cities such as food consumption, health care, education, transport and communications are also important reasons for the fluctuations of house prices.

关 键 词：住宅价格 居民收入 住房支付能力 FMOLS 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]