驼峰调车作业人因失误概率预测研究  

Study on prediction of human failure probability in hump shunting operation

作　　者：王兴海[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州铁路局武威南车务段,武威733000

出　　处：《铁路计算机应用》2011年第1期17-19,共3页Railway Computer Application

摘　　要：应用认知可靠性与失误分析方法(cognitive reliability and error analysis method,CREAM),分析驼峰解体溜放作业的任务,按任务所处的情景环境确定共同绩效条件(common performance condition,CPC)因子水平,确定人完成该任务的认知控制模式,以及每个活动的认知行为、基本的认知功能和最有可能发生失误的认知失误模式、失误概率。根据事件中活动的逻辑关系和每项活动的失误概率,预测驼峰解体作业中人因失误概率。The paper analyzed tasks of hump shunting operation by cognitive reliability and error analysis method,ensured the level of common performance condition factor（CPC） according to the context.Then in the light of synthetically level of CPC factor,the cognitive control pattern was confirmed.Cognitive behavior,cognitive functions,the cognitive failure model that would most probably occur and cognitive failure probability were identified.According to the logic of the activity in the affair and failure probability of every task,cognitive failure probability during hump shunting operation was predicted.

关 键 词：驼峰调车 人因失误概率 预测 

分 类 号：U292.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]