阿克苏河流域近46年气候变化研究  

Variation of temperature and precipitation in the Aksu River Basin in recent 46 years

作　　者：孙晓娟[1] 赵成义[2] 郑金丰[1] 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院,阿拉尔843300 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第3期78-83,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家973项目(2009CB421302);国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC03A0604);国家重点基金项目(40830640);中国科学院知识创新项目(KZCX2-YW-127)资助

摘　　要：利用线性回归、突变分析和小波分析方法,分析了阿克苏河流域1961-2006年6个地面台站的平均气温和降水量的变化。结果表明:1)46 a来阿克苏河流域气温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.18℃/10 a;2)阿克苏河流域46 a来年降水量以13.1mm/10 a的变化倾向率呈增加趋势;3)阿克苏河流域的年平均气温在1993年发生了由低向高的突变,降水在1987年发生了由低向高的突变;4)阿克苏河流域年降水量较大尺度12-16 a和8-12 a左右的振荡周期非常明显。The changes of mean temperature and precipitation at 6 meteorological stations in Aksu River Valley in recent 46 years were analyzed by using linear regression and abrupt change analysis.The results are as follows： ①The annual mean temperature is gradually increased at a climatic tendency of 0.18℃/10a,and the warming trend is significant,especially in winter.②The decadal annual precipitation in the river basin is increased by 13.1mm;③The mean annual temperature and the precipitation in the river basin have been sharply increased since 1993 and 1987 respectively.The mean temperature in autumn and winter occurred the abrupt change,while the precipitation in summer and winter occurred the abrupt change.④There are obvious periodic oscillation of 12-16a and 8-12a for the annual precipitation variation in the Aksu river basin.

关 键 词：阿克苏河 气候变化 气温 降水 突变分析 小波分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]