基于GM(1,1)模型对房地产投资额的预测研究——来自四川省成都市的经验证据  

Research on Amount of Real Estate Investment Forecast Based on GM(1,1) Model:Evidence from the City of Chengdu in Sichuan Province

作　　者：徐涛[1] 赵仪民[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学商学院,成都610059 [2]成都理工大学计划财务处,成都610059

出　　处：《成都理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第2期26-31,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Technology:Social Sciences

摘　　要：针对房地产开发投资额样本数据少、受各种因素影响具有不确定性的特点,运用灰色理论中应用最为广泛的GM(1,1)模型,以2004年以来成都房地产开发投资额的年统计数据为样本,对成都2009年的房地产开发投资额进行拟合。实证分析过程中通过弱化缓冲序列算子的作用,调整了样本数据的增长速度,实证结果表明GM(1,1)模型在房地产开发投资额预测方面精度较好,能够用该GM(1,1)模型对成都未来的房地产开发投资额进行预测分析,为政府、投资者、消费者的决策提供参考意见。Because the sample data of real estate are of great shortage, and the real estate investment is uncertain influenced by various factors. This paper uses GM （1, 1） which has been applied to many fields in the Gray Theory, and the statistical data that have been invested in real estate development of Chengdu since 2004 to forecast the real estate investment of Chengdu in 2009. Empirical analyses process by weakening buffer operators to adjust the growth of original data. According to the forecast model of GM （1, 1）, the conclusion shows the model is to a great extent reliable and accurate, and is suitable for forecasting the real estate investment of Chengdu in 2010. The results will be useful for the government, investors and consumers.

关 键 词：房地产投资 GM(1 1)模型 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]