沈阳市59年来气温变化及其突变性分析  

Temperature variation and mutation analysis over the past 59 years in Shenyang

作　　者：王明华[1] 孙晓巍[1] 李广霞[1] 戴廷仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳中心气象台,辽宁沈阳110016

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第3期1569-1570,1670,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局2010年技术推广项目"决策气象服务业务系统"

摘　　要：利用沈阳市1951～2009年气温观测资料,采用线性倾向估计对沈阳市年平均气温、平均最高、最低气温的年际、年代际变化进行统计分析,并利用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变检测。结果表明,沈阳市年平均气温、最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,其线性倾向率分别为0.231、0.181、0.218℃/10a;年平均气温、平均最高和最低气温的增温态势十分明显;平均最低气温的增温比平均最高气温更加显著。沈阳市年平均气温的突变点出现在1982年,年平均最高气温在1994年,年平均最低气温在1978年。In this paper,based on the observation data of air temperature during 1951-2009 in Shenyang,the interannual and interdecadal variation of annual average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature in Shenyang were conducted the statistical analysis by means of linear trend estimation and mutation detection by using Mann-Kendall method.As was demonstrated in the results,the annual average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature in Shenyang showed an upward trend,whose linear tendency rate was 0.231,0.181 and 0.218 respectively.The increment trend of annual average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature was extremely clear.The increase in minimum temperature was more significant than that in mean temperature and maximum temperature.The abrupt change point of annual mean temperature in Shenyang appeared in 1982;the abrupt change point of annual mean maximum temperature appeared in 1994;the annual mean minimum temperature underwent mutation in 1978.

关 键 词：沈阳市 气温变化 突变分析 Mann-Kendall统计检验 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]