基于现金流的财务危机预警指标体系构建研究——基于我国制造业上市公司数据  

Cash flow indicators design for Financial Distress Prediction——Based on Chinese Listed Companies' Data in Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：聂丽洁[1,2] 赵艳芳[1] 高一帆[3] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [2]西安交通大学过程控制与效率工程教育部重点实验室,西安710049 [3]华东理工大学材料学院,上海200237

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第3期108-112,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：陕西省软科学项目"陕西省上市公司现金流财务预警及优化方案研究"(2008KR110)

摘　　要：以我国制造业上市公司2001～2008年被ST的41家公司和与ST公司在资产规模和行业相匹配的41家非ST公司为研究对象,在引入传统财务预警指标设计的基础上,构建了基于现金流的危机预警指标体系。实证研究表明:现金流指标体系比传统财务指标体系有更高的预测精度和更低的错判率;混合两种指标处理后,预测精度比传统财务指标高,但低于现金流指标,错判率和现金流指标大致相同。构建的现金流指标体系有能力单独进行财务危机预警。In this paper,we take 41 ST companies in manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2008 and 41 non-ST companies which match the size and industry with ST companies as research object.On the basis of the traditional financial early warning indicators,we design a financial distress prediction index system based on cash flow.Empirical studies have shown that cash flow indicators system has higher prediction accuracy and lower rate of miscarriage of justice than the traditional financial indicators system;The prediction accuracy of the mixed indicators system is higher than the traditional indicators system but lower than the cash flow indicators system,its misjudged rate is roughly the same as the cash flow indicators system.Therefore,we construct the index system of cash flow have the ability to predict the financial crisis separately.

关 键 词：现金流指标 财务预警 因子分析 多元判别分析 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]