业绩预告对中国股市有效性的影响——基于应计异象的实证检验  

Effect of management earnings forecasts on the efficiency of the Chinese stock market:Evidence based on the accrual anomaly

作　　者：宋云玲[1] 罗玫[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院会计系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第12期1963-1967,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

摘　　要：为考察强制性业绩预告能否提高中国股市的有效性,按照应计由低到高将样本等分成10个组合,套利组合是买入应计最低一组的同时卖出应计最高一组,进行大样本检验。结果显示:预告样本套利组合持有半年的超额收益显著为正(9%),持有一年的超额收益不显著区别于0;无预告的样本套利组合的结果则相反。在控制影响超额收益的其他因素之后,预告样本的套利组合仍然提前半年获得显著超额收益。这说明,三季报中的业绩预告可以使预告样本的应计异象提前消失,从而提高了股票市场的有效性。This paper examines whether the compulsory disclosure policy can improve the efficiency of the Chinese stock market.Hedge portfolios are formed according to the deciles of accounting accruals with a long position on the lowest and a short position on the highest.Results from a large sample show that abnormal returns of the hedge portfolios formed on firms with management earnings forecasts in third-quarter reports are significantly positive（9%） over the first half year but insignificantly different from zero the whole one year.Abnormal returns of the hedge portfolios formed on firms that did not make management earnings forecasts in third-quarter reports show the opposite results.Moreover,the results are robust in multivariate regressions.Therefore,regulatory management earnings forecasts can help investors correct accrual mispricing earlier and improve stock market efficiencies.

关 键 词：股市有效性 应计异象 业绩预告 超额收益 

分 类 号：F233[经济管理—会计学] F832.5[经济管理—国民经济]