湖南省农业洪旱灾害演变趋势和成因及防灾减灾措施  

Succession Trend,Reason Analysis,Prevention and Reduction Measures of Agriculture Flood and Drought Disasters in Hunan Province

作　　者：覃红燕[1] 谢永宏[2] 邹冬生[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学生物科学技术学院,长沙410128 [2]中国科学院亚热带农业生态研究所,洞庭湖湿地生态系统观察研究站,长沙410125

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2011年第2期165-169,共5页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:31070325);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-435);国家重大基础研究计划(编号:2009CB421103)

摘　　要：运用Mann-Kendall趋势突变检验(简称M-K法)和回归分析等方法探讨了湖南省农业洪旱灾受灾面积演变趋势并分析了其原因。结果表明:湖南省农业洪灾受灾面积的M-K统计值在1983年后即突破置信区间(P<0.05),总体上呈明显的幂函数上升趋势;旱灾受灾面积呈波动趋势,存在不显著的上升趋势(P>0.05),可见,1980s后湖南省农业洪灾受灾面积持续增长,旱灾受灾面积未能有效遏制。主要原因包括:(1)雨水存在季节性和区域性分布不匀。如1986年后4月、5月和6月的降雨量与1951-1980年均值相比整体偏少,而7月明显偏多。(2)水土流失严重使森林水分涵养功能低下。(3)河湖淤积严重使河湖泄洪功能下降。(4)水库数量庞大但未能有效发挥其防洪兴利综合功能。最后,针对存在的原因提出了减少农业洪旱灾受灾面积的策略。The succession trend and reason analysis of the affected agricultural area by flood and drought disasters in the Hunan Province were studied in this paper mainly using the methods of Mann-Kendall trend test（M-K method） and regression analysis.The results showed that：（1） M-K statistical value of agricultural area affected by flood has been breaking M-K confidence interval after 1983（P 0.05）,and which showed a general upward trend with power function;the drought affected agricultural area displayed a fluctuating trend,and which showed an insignificant upward trend（P 0.05）.These results suggested that the area affected by flood continued to grow,while the drought affected area had not been inhibited effectively.The main reasons are：（1） the time and space heterogeneity of precipitation.For example,compared with the average precipitation during 1951-1980,the precipitation in the April,May and June after 1986 decreased significantly,however,which displayed a pronounced increasing in the July.（2） The water conservation function of forests decreased significantly caused by the serious soil erosion.（3） The flooding release function of rivers and lakes was significantly decreased by the serious sedimentation.（4） The large number of reservoirs did not effectively display their integrative role in controlling flood and drought.Finally,some strategies were proposed for the reduction of the affected area of flood and drought disasters.

关 键 词：洪灾 旱灾 洞庭湖流域 大型水库 水分涵养 水资源 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]