1959-2007年玛纳斯河流域干湿季气候变化趋势  

Climate Changing Trend in Wet and Dry Seasons in the Manas River Basin in 1959-2007

作　　者：禹朴家[1,2] 徐海量[1] 张青青[1,2] 刘世薇[1,2] 安红燕[1,2] 龚君君[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2010年第6期1121-1129,共9页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC17B01);新疆社科基金项目(075YB012)资助

摘　　要：运用统计方法对玛纳斯河流域1959-2007年近49 a来干季、湿季和全年降水量、均温、干旱指数的变化趋势、周期特征和突变特征进行分析.结果表明:49 a来玛纳斯河流域降水量和温度均呈增加的趋势,其气候倾向率分别为5.9 mm.(10a)-1和0.3℃.(10a)-1,但在20世纪70年代有一个明显的干旱期;降水、均温和干旱指数序列在干季、湿季、全年中都存在着较长周期,长周期中包含着短周期.其中,干旱指数和降水序列都存在8 a、14 a左右的周期;均温的变化周期比较复杂,波动性较强,存在22 a左右的年代际周期.累积距平法与滑动t检验得出的气候要素突变年份基本一致,大都处于1980年代.1983年流域内降水量发生由少雨到多雨的变化,流域气候开始变得湿润,1988年平均气温由偏冷转向偏暖.The changing tendencies,periods and abrupt changes of wet season mean,dry season mean and annual mean air temperatures,precipitations and arid index were analyzed for the Manas River basin,by means of linear analysis,annual anomaly,wavelet analysis and abrupt t test from 1959 to 2007.It is found that temperature and precipitation increased in the Manas River basin during this period,with the decadal changing rates of 5.91 mm·（10a）-1 and 0.33 ℃·（10a）-1,respectively;Climatic dry-wet condition varied in a normal range.With precipitation decrease,there was a dry phase in the 1970s.The time series of temperature,precipitation and arid index of wet season mean,dry season mean and annual mean varied with a long period,which contained some short ones.Among them,there were evident periods of 8 and 14 years for temperature and arid index,however,the time series of annual mean air temperature was rather complicated and showed a period around 22 years.The abrupt change years of climate factors derived from annual cumulative anomalies and abrupt t test are identical,in the 1980s.Owing to precipitation changing form less to more,the climate in the Manas River basin became wetter in 1983.The air temperature changed form cold to warm in 1988.

关 键 词：气候变化 周期 突变 干湿季 玛纳斯河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]