T213 L31数值预报产品检验  

Evaluation of T213 L31 Numerical Forecast Products

作　　者：尚可政[1] 秦春明[1,2] 王式功[1] 杨德保[1] 佘峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱与减灾重点实验室 [2]95356部队

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第6期3537-3539,3558,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC53B02);(2007BAC29B03)

摘　　要：利用国家气象中心T213 L31数值预报产品,对东亚范围内2003~2008年对流层各等压面的高度场、温度场、风场、垂直速度场和水汽场预报进行了检验。结果表明：①高度场预报,可信度较高（即气候距平相关系数大于0.6）的时效,对流层中上部6~7 d,对流层中下部5 d;②温度场预报,可信度较高的时效,对流层中上部4 d,对流层中下部5 d;③风场预报,可信度较高的时效,对流层上部5 d,对流层中部4 d,对流层下部3 d;④垂直速度场预报,可信度较高的时效仅为1~2 d;⑤水汽场预报,可信度较高的时效,对流层中部2 d,对流层下部3~4 d。由以上结果可以推论,T213 L31模式,天气形势和天气过程预报可信度较高的时效为5~7 d;近地面天气系统预报可信度较高的时效约为3~5 d;降水预报可信度较高的时效为1~3 d。The forecast of the height field,temperature field,wind field,vertical velocity field and water vapour field at each isobaric surface of troposphere in East Asia from 2003 to 2008 was evaluated by using T213 L31 numerical forecast products of National Meteorological Center.As shown by the results,the precipitation of high credibility（correlation coefficient of climate anomaly is above 0.6） reached 6-7 days in forecasting the height field of middle and upper troposphere and 5 days of middle and lower troposphere;4 days in forecasting the temperature field of middle and upper troposphere and 5 days of middle and lower troposphere;5 days in forecasting the wind field of upper troposphere,4 days of middle troposphere and 3 days of lower troposphere;1-2 days in forecasting the vertical velocity field;2 days in forecasting the water vapor field of middle troposphere and 3-4 days of lower troposphere.As concluded from the above results,the prescription of the credibility of climate situation and weather process forecast was 5-7 days;while that of the near-surface weather system forecast was 3-5 days;and that of the precipitation forecast was 1-3 days.

关 键 词：T213 L31数值预报产品 气候距平相关系数 检验 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]