考虑规划小区发展时序的空间负荷预测分类分区法  

Classification and Subarea Method for Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Planning Area Temporal Order

作　　者：朱凤娟[1] 王主丁[1,2] 寿挺 朱铁铭 范华 赵俊光[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400044 [2]重庆大学电力能源技术经济研究院,重庆400044 [3]萧山供电局,杭州311201

出　　处：《华东电力》2011年第3期423-427,共5页East China Electric Power

基　　金：科技部科技型企业技术创新基金资助项目(06C26225110507)~~

摘　　要：目前应用分类分区法进行空间负荷预测时,往往忽略新区的发展时序问题。针对这一不足,将投建年份不同的新区按照时序关系,依次在其相应的先前年份负荷拟合曲线上进行空区推论预测,得到对应投入年份的新区在规划年的负荷大小,由平均负荷密度进而预测其负荷分布。该方法相比于现有方法,在负荷密度预测中体现了小区发展的时序关系,有效提高了预测精度。通过算例证明了该方法的优越性和实用性。The temporal order of new area developing is generally neglected when classification and subarea methods are applied for spatial load forecasting.In this paper,load forecasting of new area building in a year is obtained via vacant inference based on the load forecasting curve of the previous year according to the temporal order of new area building.Then,with the area size being considered,the average load density and load distribution can be found.Compared with the existing methods,the proposed method improves the prediction accuracy effectively with the load density forecasting reflecting the temporal relationship.The excellence and practicality of the method are verified by a calculation example.

关 键 词：空间负荷预测 分类分区 发展时序 空区推论 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]