中国碳排放量测算及影响因素分析  

An Evaluation and Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China

作　　者：蒋金荷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第4期597-604,共8页Resources Science

基　　金：国家环保公益性行业科研专项(编号:200809151);中国社会科学院经济政策与模拟实验室资助项目

摘　　要：研究碳排放问题首先需要对碳排放量进行估算。本文首先根据国家、地区、行业不同的能源消费特征和可利用的统计数据,提出了不同层次的碳排放量测算方法,并估算了全国、各个行业、各省市区的碳排放量。基于指数分解方法的特点,利用碳排放的完全指数分解方法——对数平均Divisia指数(LMDI法)定量分析了中国1995年-2007年碳排放变化的影响因素和贡献率,影响因素包括4种,即经济规模效应、结构效应、能源强度效应和碳强度效应。分解模型结果表明,不同时期这4种效应对碳排放变化的贡献率是不同的,1995年-2007年对碳排放增加影响最大的因素是经济发展。结果也提醒国家需要对这一时期内的产业政策、能源发展措施等方面进行反思。Evaluation of carbon emissions is essential to studying carbon related issues. This paper provides an evaluation method of CO2 emissions at different levels in terms of different properties of energy consumption and available statistical data at national, regional, and industrial levels. A CO2 emission series at the three levels was obtained. It is concluded that： 1） the current economic development pertains to high-carbon economy due to the economic structure and economic development pattern; 2） the proportion of CO2 of the whole industry accounted for 85% of the total CO2 emission in China. In general, the carbon intensity in industries decreased, but slowly increased in the transportation sector. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model （LMDI）, which is the complete decomposition of carbon emissions with the decomposition residual item of zero, was used to perform quantitative analysis of changes in CO2 emissions and percentages of contributors for China during the period 1995-2007. Four effects resulted in changes in CO2 emissions, including economic scale, industrial structure, energy intensity or energy efficiency, and carbon intensity. The results of carbon decomposition show that contributors of the four effects to changes in CO2 emissions were different. For example, the most significant factor contributing to increases in CO2 emissions during the study period was due to economic development, followed by the change in the industrial structure and energy structure or carbon intensity. The decrease in energy intensity would lead to carbon emission reductions, but the increase in CO2 emissions during the decade was definitely caused by economic growth, and the change in economic structure and energy structure. Improvement in energy intensity has a positive effect on carbon emissions. Results also show that the four effects were not the same for different periods of time. The energy intensity decrease and economic development were the major reasons for increases in CO2 emissions during the period 1

关 键 词：碳排放量 分解分析 Divisia指数法 能源效率 经济增长 碳排放强度 中国 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]