中国部分地区太阳辐照量的非线性回归模型  

Non-linear regression model of solar radiation in some areas in China

作　　者：徐文莉[1] 濮晓龙[2] 佟洁[1] 杨金焕[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海电力学院数理系,上海200090 [2]华东师范大学金融与统计学院,上海200241

出　　处：《扬州大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期27-31,共5页Journal of Yangzhou University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：上海市教委科研创新基金资助项目(09YZ336)

摘　　要：根据中国国家气象中心提供的有完整气象资料的62个观测站1961-1980,1982-2000年的实际测量数据,运用统计软件进行整理和分析,发现绝大多数地区近期的太阳辐照量均比早期的减少;对比分析美国航空和航天局(NASA)测得的数据和中国测得的数据,表明两种数据统计意义上有显著性差异;又经回归诊断,1961-1980,1982-2000年数据满足建立回归模型的前提条件,建立的多元非线性回归模型经过统计检验回归效果显著;利用数理统计方法证明太阳辐照量随环境的变化产生了显著性差异.Based on observations in 1961-1980 and 1982-2000 from 62 observatories of National Satellite Meteorological Center,statistical analysis concludes that solar radiation becomes weaker than before in most areas in China.Comparison with the data obtained by NASA,there is significant difference between the two kinds of observations.Multi-nonlinear regression models are established for the samplings,which satisfy basis of regression diagnosis.Using mathematical statistical methods,it is proven that solar irradiation quantity changes significantly with the environment.

关 键 词：太阳辐照量 正态性检验 非线性回归 最小二乘理论 

分 类 号：P422.11[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] O213.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]