气候变化对西苕溪流域未来洪水影响研究——Ⅱ.情景分析  

IMPACT OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD IN THE XITIAOXI CATCHMENT——Ⅱ.SCENARIO ANALYSIS

作　　者：刘浏[1] 徐宗学[1] 黄俊雄[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京市水利科学研究所,北京100048

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2011年第4期508-512,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50979005);中国水利水电科学研究院开放研究基金(IWHRO2008012)

摘　　要：研究表明VIC模型在西苕溪流域具有良好的适用性,特别是对汛期洪水的模拟。应用陆面水文模型VIC与区域气候模式PRECIS耦合,探讨了西苕溪流域未来洪水对气候变化的响应。结果表明:横塘村水文站月平均流量与月最大洪峰流量的关系较为密切,相关系数均在0.85以上,在一定程度上可以表征洪水的变化特征;基于PRECIS生成的气候情景,未来时期西苕溪流域洪水对气候变化的响应比较明显,尤其是汛期流量增加趋势较显著;结合P-Ⅲ型分布频率分析,西苕溪流域2021～2050年发生洪水极值事件的频率及量级都较基准期增大,且A2情景比B2情景相对更容易触发较大洪水,基准期50a一遇洪水在未来两种情景下分别缩短为27a一遇和32a一遇,说明流域洪水对于气候变化的响应程度增大。In the first part of this two-part paper,it has been proved that VIC model is adaptable for the Xitiaoxi catchment,especially for the simulation of discharge during flood seasons.In this part,VIC model is coupled with PRECIS to analyze the flood response to future climate change.Results indicate that the average monthly discharge and maximum monthly discharge are strongly correlated at the Hengtangcun hydrologic station.In other words,the flood could be represented satisfactorily by average monthly discharge.The discharge will increase significantly during flood seasons in the study area in the future（2021~2050）,and flood frequency will also increase significantly under future climate scenarios than that during baseline period（1961~1990）.The probability of occurrence for big flood under A2 scenario will be greater than that under B2 scenario,a 50-year event may become a 27-year or 32-year event under A2 and B2 scenario in the future respectively.All these suggest that flood response to climate change will be more sensitive,and there will be a great increase in intensity and frequency of extreme floods in the future.This will be a big challenge for the planning and management of water resources,and also for flood control in the future.

关 键 词：陆气耦合 区域气候模式 洪水 频率分析 气候变化 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]