北方缺水地区水库汛限水位调整下的极限风险研究  

Extreme Risk Analysis on Adjusting Flood Control Level of Reservoirs in Water Shortage Area of Northern China

作　　者：葛慧[1] 王银堂[2] 黄振平[1] 樊皓[3] 程亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [3]长江水资源保护科学研究所,湖北武汉430051

出　　处：《水力发电》2011年第3期10-13,共4页Water Power

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200901030;200901044);水科部科技推广计划项目(TG1007)

摘　　要：为了挖掘水库调蓄能力,缓解北方地区出现的水资源危机,探讨水库提高汛限水位的可能性。以海河流域岳城水库为例,采用随机模拟法计算汛限水位调整下水库的极限风险。分别建立了线性自回归模型和典型解集模型模拟入库洪水过程,通过统计特性分析检验其模拟效果。研究表明,岳城水库的汛限水位至少可以从目前的132 m提高到135 m,此时超校核洪水位的极限风险远小于原设计标准,从而可以大大增加水库蓄水,提高水库的经济和社会效益。The possibility of raising flood control level of reservoirs in North China was discussed tor increasing the water storage capacity and meeting the requirements on water resources. Taking Yuecheng Reservoir in Haihe River basin as an example, a stochastic method was adopted to calculate the extreme risk of raising flood control level. The linear autoregressiou and typical disaggregation models were developed to simulate flood, and the simulation was examined by statistical characteristic analysis. The results show that the control level of Yuecheng Reservoir can be raised to 135.0 m at least from current 132.0 m, and the extreme risk of exceeding the check flood level is less than the original design.

关 键 词：汛限水位 极限风险 随机模拟 自回归模型 典型解集模型 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]