基于系统动力学的生态工业系统模型构建——以南通经济技术开发区为例  

Method: A Case Study in the Nantong Economic and Technology Development Zone

作　　者：王瑾[1,2] 钱新[1] 钱瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室南京大学环境学院,江苏南京210093 [2]山西农业大学资源环境学院,山西太谷030801

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期80-85,共6页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划重大项目(2006BAC02A15);863计划项目课题(2008AA06A405)

摘　　要：以南通经济技术开发区为研究层面,利用系统动力学方法的反馈作用机制,构建以经济产出、物质消耗、污染排放、综合集成为子系统的系统动力学模型。模型应用Vensim-DSS软件,模拟2002年后生态化发展情景,历史模拟值与实际值拟合较好,模型具有较强的应用性。结果说明开发区系统输入输出增长趋势速度减缓;系统生态效率持续增加,但污染排放指数增幅最大,环境压力很大。通过微调决策变量仿真发展情景,决策者可选择提高系统效率的综合管理情景。Based on the development zone level,an eco-industrial system model was established for Nantong City using system dynamics method.System Dynamics（SD） is characterized by a cause-feedback mechanism and interactions among economic variables.In the study,four subsystems,industrial output,material wastage,indicator integration,pollution discharge,join with the SD model configuration for the integrated system environments regulation and control.The model runs in Vensim-DSS software and simulates the running of the development zone system in 2000＇s,which has a strong application as model output right with Reported data of Model.In the study period,the growth of system performances will be slow.Eco-efficiency factor will increase with years,while the growth of pollution discharge index should be greatest.Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations.

关 键 词：生态工业系统 系统动力学模型 构建 经济技术开发区 南通市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]