甘肃省水旱灾害时空分布特征及其与粮食产量的关系  

Temporal and spatial distribution of drought-flood hazards in Gansu Province and its relationship with regional grain output

作　　者：郭小燕[1] 张家武[1] 陈雪梅[1] 王君兰[1] 李双[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,西部环境与气候变化研究院,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2011年第6期132-137,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家创新研究群体科学基金(NSFC40721061)资助

摘　　要：全球变暖的背景下,气象灾害呈明显上升趋势,极端干旱事件频繁发生,给农业生产造成严重损失。水旱灾害是对农业生产产生影响最直接、最经常性的灾害类型,其与农业产量关系的研究可为农业生产、防灾减灾、粮食安全评估等提供基础的科学依据。文中以我国西北甘肃省为例,根据1985-2007年全省水旱灾害受灾面积、成灾面积、粮食产量数据,分析了甘肃省水旱灾害及其时空分布特征和水旱灾害与粮食产量的关系。结果表明:甘肃省受旱灾的影响范围广,全省各市均有分布;水旱灾害的空间分布显示陇东南地区受灾的机率远高于河西地区。旱灾在灌溉农业区和非灌溉农业区与粮食产量均呈负相关,旱灾发生造成粮食减产;以灌溉农业为主的河西地区粮食产量与水灾受灾面积之间呈显著的正相关,旱作农业区粮食产量与水旱受灾面积之间的关系却不太明显,说明灌溉水利条件、水资源利用效率对干旱区农业的重要性。Under the background of global warming,meteorological disasters have been increasing and the extreme drought events have frequently occurred and resulted in serious losses to regional agricultural production.Among the meteorological hazards,floods and droughts are the most directly related to agriculture and the relationship between these hazards and the grain yield could provide basis for hazards mitigation and grain supply.According to the statistics of the influencing area,stricken grain yield and the total agricultural output value from the census results from 1985 to 2007 in Gansu Province,we analyzed the essential characteristics of droughts and floods and their temporal and spatial distribution in Gansu Province.The relationship between the drought and flood disasters and the local grain yield as well as the total agricultural output value suggested that the impact of drought is serious and it has a wide distribution in the Gansu province.The probability of drought and flood disasters in the southeast of Gansu is far higher than that in Hexi areas.Significant correlation between the grain yield and affected areas of the floods in Hexi region is obvious,indicating that the floods is favorable for grain production the irrigated regions in arid area.Droughts would cause reduction in grain output in both irrigated and non-irrigated regions.Our results indicated the importance of irrigation and the efficiency of water utilization in arid and semi-arid regions.

关 键 词：甘肃省 水旱灾害 时空分布 粮食产量 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]