中国林业产业结构灰色预测分析  

Grey Prediction Analysis on Forestry Industrial Structure of China

作　　者：王桂涛[1] 胡申[1] 温亚利[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2011年第10期6215-6217,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：阿拉善SEE生态协会资助"集体林权制度改革模式探析"项目;北京市深化集体林权制度改革专题调研项目

摘　　要：应用灰色关联分析方法研究了1996～2009年我国林业系统的产值结构,并以GM(1,1)模型为基础,建立信息模型,对中国今后10年林业产业结构情况进行了预测。结果表明,1996～2009年林业三大产业与林业产值的灰色关联度分别为0.849 1、0.731 1、0.821 3,排序为第二产业<第三产业<第一产业;预测结果显示,中国林业产业处于工业化中期,二、三产业将高速发展并占主导地位。The grey relevance analysis was applied to study the 1996-2009 output value structure of china forestry system.Based on GM（1,1） model,information model was established to predict the forestry industrial structure of China in the next 10 years.Result showed that grey correlations between the three forestry industries and the forestry output value were 0.849 1,0.731 1 and 0.821 3,respectively,with its order being secondary industrytertiary industryprimary industry.Prediction result showed that forestry industry of China was in the middle stage of industrialization;and both secondary and tertiary industries would develop rapidly and became the leading industries.

关 键 词：林业产业结构 灰色关联度 灰色预测 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F326.22[经济管理—产业经济]