新疆库车县沙尘暴变化特征及突变分析  

ANALYSIS ON SANDSTORM CHANGING CHARACTERISTICS AND ABRUPT CHANGE IN KUCHE,XINJIANG

作　　者：唐金[1] 李霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学草业与资环学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第2期54-57,91,共4页Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science)

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区"十一五"重大专项(200733144-1);中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KZCX1-YW-09)

摘　　要：根据新疆气象局地面观测资料,整理出库车县1951～2009年沙尘暴年日数资料,运用小波分析、累积距平、滑动t检验等方法对沙尘暴年日数序列的变化趋势、周期特征、突变特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1)近60年间,库车县沙尘暴年日数呈显著减少的趋势,趋势系数为-0.34,通过α=0.05的显著性检验。20世纪50年代、60年代和70年代是近60年库车县沙尘暴的三个频发期。(2)沙尘暴年日数序列存在7年、15年、22年的周期;在不同的时间尺度上,沙尘暴经历了多个频发期和少沙尘暴期,在未来几年可能会再次迎来一个沙尘暴的频发期。(3)研究区内沙尘暴年日数变化趋势确实存在1985年的突变年份,而且这次突变并不是简单的均值突变或转折突变,是这两种突变的组合。Based on ground observations of Xinjiang Bureau of Meteorology,the data about annual sandstorm days in Kuche from 1951 to 2009 were obtained,and the trend,periods and abrupt change of sandstorm variation were analyzed by the methods of wavelet analyze,annual anomalies and abrupt t test.The results indicate that：（1） The sandstorm frequency trend is decreased in Kuche during 60 years,the average trend is-0.34,with the significance of 0.05 level.The sandstorm days are the most in 1950＇s,1970 ＇s and 1980＇s during 60 years.（2） There is an obvious period of 7,15 and 22 years for the annual sandstorm days series;at the scale of different years,there are many high frequency and latent period for the annual sandstorm days series;another high frequency period will happen again in the future.（3） The abrupt change year of annual sandstorm days are really 1985 in the study area,and it is not a simple abrupt change of the mean turning point abrupt change or abrupt change,but is a combination of the two abrupt change types.

关 键 词：沙尘暴 周期 突变 库车 新疆 

分 类 号：P445.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]