舰载软杀伤仿真中不确定性分析  

Analysis of Parameter Uncertainty and Stochastic Uncertainty in Soft-killing Simulation on Warship

作　　者：夏青[1] 张士峰[1] 蔡洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学航天与材料工程学院,湖南410073

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2011年第5期849-852,856,共5页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：舰载软杀伤仿真系统中,不可避免地存在不确定性因素,分析不确定性是利用仿真系统进行效能评估的关键。因此,研究了Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法在参数不确定性和随机不确定性定量分析中的理论知识,介绍了软杀伤仿真中反舰导弹捕捉目标的数学模型,并把两种方法应用到舰载软杀伤仿真系统。通过仿真结果比较,Bayes方法的估值精度高,算法简单,计算速度快,Bayes方法是分析不确定性的有效方法。It is unavoidable that uncertainties exist in the soft-killing simulation system.Analysis of uncertainties is the central element of effectiveness evaluation using simulation system.Thus,the theoretic knowledge and simulation analysis of Bootstrap approach and Bayes approach in quantificational analysis of parameter uncertainty and stochastic uncertainty were studied,and the math model of anti-ship missile capturing object in the soft-killing simulation was introduced.With comparing the results of simulation,it can be known that the value of Bayes approach is the best propinquity to the real,and,Bayes approach is easy and fast to complete.Thus,Bayes approach is the effectual method for analyzing the two uncertainties.

关 键 词：参数不确定性 随机不确定性 BAYES方法 BOOTSTRAP方法 软杀伤 

分 类 号：TJ765.4[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]