云推理模型在贵州省粮食产量预测中的应用  

Application of Cloud Reasoning Model to the Yield Prediction of Guizhou Province

作　　者：张和喜[1,2] 迟道才[1] 王群[2] 房军[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学水利学院,沈阳110016 [2]贵州省水利科学研究院,贵阳550002

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2011年第2期184-187,191,共5页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：贵州省优秀科技教育人才省长专项资金项目(黔省专字(2008)78)

摘　　要：粮食生产是国民经济重要的组成部分,粮食生产的波动必然会引发整个国民经济的波动。基于贵州省1949-2008年粮食总产量数据,采用云推理预测模型动态模拟该省粮食产量变化态势,并以1999-2008年10a数据与预测数据进行验证。结果表明:云推理模型在粮食产量预测中的应用效果较好,尤其是对趋势的预测效果令人满意,具有较高的实用价值和推广应用的意义。Grain production is the important part of national economy development,whose fluctuation will affect national economy security.Based on the grain yield data from 1949 to 2008 of Guizhou Province,cloud reasoning model was used to simulate the change situation of grain yield.And confirmation and forecast of the model was carried out according to the data of 1999-2008.The results indicated that the cloud reasoning model is good in grain yield forecast,especially in the tendency forecast effect,demonstates the high practical value and can be applied.

关 键 词：云推理 粮食产量 预测 

分 类 号：F307.11[经济管理—产业经济] O29[理学—应用数学]