卫星钟差长期预报模型的研究与改进  

Study and Improvement for the Model in Satellite Clock Error Long-term Forecast

作　　者：刘永义[1,2] 党亚民[1,2] 郑作亚[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国测绘科学研究院,北京100830 [2]山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院,山东青岛266510

出　　处：《海洋测绘》2011年第2期21-23,共3页Hydrographic Surveying and Charting

基　　金：国家863计划项目(2007AA12Z346);国家测绘局重点实验室项目(B2531;200604;B2806)

摘　　要：在传统的二次多项式模型和灰色模型的基础上提出了一种新的组合模型来预报卫星钟差。首先利用灰色模型估计的残差建立二次多项式模型,预报以后历元的残差修正值,然后和灰色模型的预报结果相加。并分析了利用不同历元个数的残差建模所得组合模型的精度,将组合模型与灰色模型、二次多项式模型的预报精度进行了比较。结果表明:组合模型相对于灰色模型的预报精度能提高一个数量级左右。验证了该组合模型的可行性和有效性。A new combination model is proposed to forecast satellite clock bias in this paper,based on quadratic polynomial model and grey model：first,quadratic polynomial model is established by the forecast residuals of grey model and forecast the later epochs＇residuals,which are added to the forecast result of grey model.The amount of epochs to establish model of bias is also discussed in this paper.Comparing combination model＇s forecast with grey model and quadratic polynomial model,it is shown that combination model＇s precision is one magnitude higher than grey model＇s and combination model is reliable and validation.

关 键 词：钟差 残差 灰色模型 二次多项式模型 组合模型 

分 类 号：P228.43[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]