论过去资料在数值天气预报中使用的理论和方法  

THE THEORIES AND METHODS OF UTILIZING HISTORICAL DATA IN NUMERICAL WEATHER FORECAST

作　　者：龚建东[1] 丑纪范[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学系,甘肃省兰州市730000

出　　处：《高原气象》1999年第3期392-399,共8页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：对中国气象学家在数值天气预报中使用过去实况演变资料的理论和方法作了概要性总结。其中不仅讨论了近期实况演变资料的应用，还讨论了积累数十年的历史资料的应用问题。文中强调要改变对数值预报问题的提法，回顾了由初值问题改为演变问题，再改为反问题的历程。文中指出，针对实际问题特点的不同，可以理想化为三种情况：一是模式是精确的，资料也是精确的，但有的变量没有观测资料；二是资料是精确的，模式有误差；三是模式是精确的，资料有误差。而所谓四维变分同化方法，不过是属于第三类，而且只应用了近期演变资料，没有应用历史资料。由于实际情况通常是模式不精确，资料也不精确，文中提出应在不确定的前提下，把预报问题提成一个信息问题，充分利用已掌握的实况资料以及我们对过程演变物理规律的一定程度的了解，对未来状况作出概率的估计。This paper summarizes theories and methods utilizing historical observation data presented by Chinese meteorologists in numerical weather prediction(NWP). Not only real present evolution data is discussed but also discussed the problem utilizing historical observation data that accumulated ten years. The anthors point out that it should change the way NWP is put forward and review the process of this change from initial condition problem to evolution problem and to again inverse problem. Based on the real problem characteristic, three idealized cases were classified: (1) both the numerical model and data is exactly credible but there are parameters without observation; (2) the data is credible but there is error in model; (3) the numerical model is credible but data has error. So called the four dimensional variational data assimilation is really belongs to the third case above, but it only utilize present evolution data and didn't utilize historical data. In real world, because both the model and data are not exactly credible, it should change forecast problem to information problem. In this way, we can assess the future weather probility by utilizing both historical observation data and physical law of atmospheric process evolution.

关 键 词：数值天气预报 历史资料 初值 演变问题 信息问题 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]