制造业上市公司财务危机预警指标预处理研究  

作　　者：于文华[1,2] 岳焱[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学,四川成都610059 [2]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都611756

出　　处：《浙江金融》2011年第4期61-65,共5页Zhejiang Finance

基　　金：2008年四川省教育厅人文社会科学青年基金项目(08SB073);成都理工大学研究基金项目(Sxyzc08-07;2008QJ24)

摘　　要：本文以中国制造业上市公司为研究对象,选取ST公司在财务危机发生前1～5年的财务指标数据,同时通过随机抽样选取相应的非ST公司为对比样本,通过实证分析,对29个财务危机预警指标进行预处理研究,并建立Logistic回归模型对制造业上市公司进行了超前1～5年的财务危机预测。通过对比,分析了各财务预警指标在财务危机爆发前不同年份的作用,找出了5个对于财务危机爆发前3～5年尤其具有重要影响的预警指标。这些预警指标和相应的预警模型能够为投资者、金融机构以及证券市场监管层对企业的财务状况进行分析和预测提供决策参考。Some listed companies in China＇ s manufacturing industries are taken as the research objects, and ST companies＇ financial indicators in 1-5 years before the occurrence of their financial distress are collected. On the other hand,non-ST companies are selected as random samples ,then by empirically analyzing, 29 indicators for Financial Crisis Prediction model are pretreated,and Logistic regression model is established to forecast the financial crisis. Through comparative study ,This article analyzed the roles of every financial indicator before the outbreak of financial crisis and identified five indicators which have an important impact on early warning of 3-5 years before the outbreak of financial crisis. The indicators and the model can provide references of decision making for investors, financial institutions and supervisors of stock markets to analyze and research the financial situation of enterprises.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC回归 预警指标 逐步回归 方差分析 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]