不确定性下的中国减排方案寻优研究  

Research on China's Emission Reduction Scheme for Searching Superiority with Uncertainty of Climate Change

作　　者：王铮[1,2] 朱潜挺[1,3] 吴静[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2011年第3期261-270,共10页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目KZCX2-YW-Q1-09;国家自然科学基金项目40771076、40901196的资助

摘　　要：在王铮等(2010)气候保护经济政策模拟系统的基础上,考虑全球温度变化的不确定性,模拟研究了既适合全球的减排行动又符合我国国情的减排方案。研究以至2050年将大气温室气体浓度稳定在450ppm二氧化碳当量以内、至2100年全球温度上升控制在2℃以内为前提,首先模拟了哥本哈根协议下全球减排方案的效果;然后针对中国和其他地区不同的总量减排情景展开经济政策模拟;最后在全球温度变化不确定性背景下,比较分析了总量减排方案对我国的影响。研究发现:从短时期来看,总量减排行动将会给我国带来损失,但从长时期来看,适时适量展开总量减排将有利于我国经济持续发展。在全球温度上升不确定的条件下,较优的全球总量减排方案为:至2050年发达国家碳排放量比1990年减少80%;前苏联地区比1990年减少50%;中国与其他地区从2025年开始总量减排,至2050年中国碳排放量比2005年减少28%,其他地区比2005年减少20%。Based on the economy policy simulation system on climate protection developed by Wang et al.（2010）,considering the uncertainty of global climate change,the authors have simulated and studied an emission reduction scheme which is appropriate to the global emission reduction action and accords with the national condition in China.With the precondition of being able to control the atmosphiric greenhouse gas concentration at the CO2 eqinalent within 450 ppm by 2050 and temperature rise below 2℃ by 2100,the study firstly simullated the effect of global emission reduction scheme under Copenhagen Accord;and then simulated the economy policy with regard to the different contexts of the total amount of emission reduction di in China and ROW（the rest of the world）,and finally,under the background of uncertainty on temperature rise,compared and analyzed the influence of the total amount emission reduction scheme on China.The results of the study show that from a short-term view,the total amount emission reduction action will bring loss to China,but from a long-term view,to perform the total amount emission reduction at suitable durations and suitable amount will facilitate sustainable development of economy in china. Under the condition of uncertainty on global temperature rise,the comparatively superior global total amount emission reduction scheme is： the developed countries＇ carbon emission amount will be 80% less than 1990 by 2050;the carbon emission amout of the regions of the former Soviet Union will be 50% less than 1990 by 2050;China and ROW will start the total amount emission reductionin from 2025,and China＇s carbon emission amount will be 28% less than 2005 by 2050;ROW will be 20% less than 2005 by 2050.

关 键 词：不确定性 减排方案 哥本哈根协议 气候保护 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学]