1957年至2008年海河流域气温变化趋势和突变分析  

Analysis of Temperature Trends and Change Points in the Haihe River Basin Over the Last 50 Years

作　　者：徐丽梅[1,2] 郭英[1] 刘敏[1,2] 胡乔利[1,3] 陈福军[1,3] 杨树聪[1,2] 沈彦俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心,石家庄050021 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]河北师范大学,石家庄050016

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第5期995-1001,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:40871021);中科院知识创新工程方向项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-448),中科院“十一五”知识创新工程重大项目(编号:KZCX1-YW-08-03-07)

摘　　要：气温变化是气候变化背景下科学研究的热点问题。海河流域作为中国的粮食主产区,其气温的变化研究对于指导农业生产生活具有重要的意义。本文采用成熟的Mann_Kendall非参数检验方法对海河流域1957年-2008年的年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温的变化趋势进行了显著性检验,并采用滑动t-检验法对气温的突变期进行了分析,结果表明:海河流域年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温全部呈上升趋势,并且全区平均气温上升显著,东北部地区的最高和最低气温的上升趋势也全部通过显著性检验;各月平均气温中,1月、2月、3月、4月、9月气温上升显著。最低气温增温显著,邢台、蔚县和霸州等形成多个骤升中心,其中邢台最低气温最大变幅达0.78℃/10a;流域内大部分地区气温发生突变的年限多在1971年-1974年,1986年-1988年,1993年-1994年和1996年-1999年。气温突变主要发生在20世纪70年代和90年代,并且2月、3月份发生突变的范围最广。Detection of changes in air temperature receives much attention in the context of climate change.The Haihe River basin is a major grain production area of China.Investigating temperature change is of great significance for providing useful information to better manage agriculture water use.In this paper,trends in annual mean,maximum,and minimum temperatures over the period 1957-2008 in the Haihe River basin were detected using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test method.Abrupt changing points were also detected using the moving t test.Data were obtained from the National Climate Data Center（NCDC）.To keep the integrity of the data,some stations having missing data in a long period of time were not involved;60 stations were selected to perform this study.esults indicated that：1） All the annual average,maximum,and minimum temperatures of the Haihe River basin showed increasing trends with statistical significance.This finding is in accordance with the trend in the Northern Hemisphere.The maximum and minimum temperatures increased significantly in the northeast.This means that the temperature would become higher in daytime and nighttime,with their means increasing.In the southwest,however,the increasing trend of the minimum temperature was more significant than the maximum temperature.It is therefore indicated that the temperature increased more in daytime than in nighttime,and the temperature difference between daytime and nighttime would reduce.All the changes in the northeast and southwest would have a great influence on crop growth.2） The increase extent of mean temperature was up to 0.48℃/10a.Beijing and Yuxian were two areas where the mean temperature increased fastest.But the increase of minimum temperature showed the greatest change.There were several centers of temperature rising such as Xingtai,Yuxian,and Bazhou.The increasing rate of the maximum temperature at the Xingtai station was up to 0.78℃/10a.More than 90% stations showed increasing trends in Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,Sep,Oct,Nov,and Dec,with Ja

关 键 词：气温变化趋势 海河流域 Mann_Kendall非参数检验 突变 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]