基于均匀设计的事故再现模型参数敏感性分析  

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Accident Reconstruction Model Based on Uniform Design

作　　者：邹铁方[1] 杜荣华[1,2] 李岳林[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学智能交通与车路协同技术研究所 [2]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第2期53-56,共4页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(60974093);中国博士后科学基金资助(20100470035);湖南省教育厅重点资助科研项目(10A003)

摘　　要：借助参数敏感性分析方法确定那些对事故再现结果有显著影响的参数,进而通过对这些参数进行合理处理则可在花费不大情况下确保再现结果的精度。基于均匀设计并结合回归分析,提出了一种事故再现模型参数敏感性分析方法:该方法首先借助均匀设计寻找到事故再现模型的一阶响应面模型,再借助该响应面模型获得原事故再现模型内参数的敏感性向量。并在此基础上进一步探讨了如何通过该方法获得各输入参数的取值区间及各输入参数在其标称值附近有一定程度扰动时2种情况下参数对计算结果的影响程度。最后给出一数值算例,算例结果表明:笔者方法所得参数敏感性顺序与其他学者研究所得一致。Parameters in accident reconstruction model,which have significant influence on simulation results,can be obtained by parameter sensitivity analysis,and then these parameters can be paid more attention to in accident reconstruction in order to improve the precise of reconstruction results.A new parameter sensitivity analysis method is proposed based on uniform design and regression analysis.Firstly,the first-order response surface model of the accident reconstruction model is obtained by uniform design.And then the sensitivity vector of parameters in the accident reconstruction model can be gotten through this obtained response surface model.Furthermore,the way to analyze the influence of intervals of parameters and disturbance of parameters around their nominal value on accident reconstruction results is given.Finally,a numerical case was given,results show that the order of parameter sensitivity obtained from the method is the same as those obtained from other scholar＇s.

关 键 词：交通工程 事故再现 均匀设计 参数敏感性分析 模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]