基于突变模型的我国食品安全风险评估  被引量:24

Risk Assessment of Food Safety in China Based on Catastrophe Model

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作  者:陈秋玲[1] 马晓姗[1] 张青[1] 

机构地区:[1]上海大学经济学院

出  处:《中国安全科学学报》2011年第2期152-158,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基  金:国家社科基金青年项目(07CSH004);教育部人文社会科学项目(09YJA630092);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目(2010BZH002)

摘  要:为评估我国食品安全风险,基于突变模型和结构稳定性理论,从食品产业链视角设计食品安全风险评估指标,分别测度食品的生产环节、流通环节和消费环节的风险度,得出我国近年来食品安全的总风险度,并找出我国食品的薄弱环节。结果表明:生产环节的风险度呈下降趋势,流通环节和消费环节的风险度波动较大,消费环节的风险度整体呈上升趋势,因此,流通环节和消费环节是我国食品安全需要加强的环节;近年来我国食品安全总风险值整体呈下降趋势,但仍有短暂波动,食品安全问题仍需重视。In order to evaluate China's food safety risk,on the basis of catastrophe theory and structure stability theory,the food safety risk assessment indexes were designed from the food chain perspective,the risk degrees existing in productive link,circulative link and consumptive link were estimated respectively.Thus,the total risk degree of China's food safety in recent years was obtained,and the deficiencies for food safety were identified.The results show that the risk degree existing in productive link takes on a trend of decline,while the risk degrees existing in circulative link and consumptive link fluctuate greatly,and the risk degree in consumptive link is on the rise as a whole.So food control in circulative and consumptive links needs strengthening.On the whole,the risk degree of China's food safety is falling with short fluctuations,yet food safety still needs great attention.

关 键 词:突变模型 食品安全 风险评估 评估指标 评估方法 

分 类 号:X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]

 

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