影响直肠癌根治术后化疗患者预后相关因素分析  

Prognostic factors of rectal cancer after radical resection and chemotherathey

作　　者：贾新建[1] 向晓娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省德阳市人民医院肿瘤科,四川德阳618000

出　　处：《现代肿瘤医学》2011年第5期972-974,共3页Journal of Modern Oncology

摘　　要：目的:探讨影响直肠癌根治术后化疗相关预后因素并建立预后预测模型。方法:选择直肠癌根治术后化疗患者55例,收集相关预后因素并进行随访。采用单因素和多因素Cox模型分析,计算预后指数(PI)。结果:经单因素和多因素Cox模型分析,发现肿瘤侵犯深度、脉管侵犯为独立预后因子,其OR值分别为:2.719、3.341;由此建立预后预测模型:h(t,x)=h0(t)exp(1.000X3+1.206X7),计算PI=1.000X3+1.206X7;利用ROC曲线原理,当PI≤3.21时,直肠癌根治术后化疗后3年预后结局较好。结论:肿瘤侵犯深度、脉管侵犯为直肠癌根治术后化疗重要的预后指标,由此建立的预后预测模型具有较高的信度和效度,可为临床医师对直肠癌根治术后化疗患者个体预后结局估计提供工具。Objective：To explore the factors related to the prognosis of rectal cancer after radical resection and chemotherathey and to establish a prognostic model for evaluating the prognosis of the patients.Methods： Fifty five cases with rectal cancer after radical resection and chemotherap were selected,the factors related to prognosis were collected and patients were followed.Cox regression was used for univariate and multivariate analysis.Prognostic index（PI） was calculated based on the results of multivariate analysis.Results： Univariate and multivariate analysis of Cox regression model revealed that the independent prognostic factors were depth of invasion and carcino-bolt in vessel,with OR of 2.719、3.341 respectively.A prognostic model：h（t,x）=h0（t）exp（1.000X3＋1.206X7） was established.Prognostic index：PI=1.000X3＋1.206X7 was calculated.Gastric cancer after radical resection and chemotherathey have a better three-year outcome with PI≤3.21 by ROC curve.Conclu sion： Depth of invasion and carcino-bolt in vessel seemed to be independent and important prognostic factors.This prognostic model could be used to evaluate the prognosis of patients with rectal cancer after radical resection and chemotherathey.

关 键 词：直肠癌 预后 COX模型 

分 类 号：R735.37[医药卫生—肿瘤]