基于在线方法的蓝藻危机应急预案启动策略  

Start-up strategy of contingency plan against blue-green algae crisis based on online method

作　　者：余昇[1,2,3] 徐寅峰[1,2,3] 董玉成[1,2,3] 郑斐峰[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,西安710049 [2]机械制造系统工程国家重点实验室,西安710049 [3]西安交通大学智能网络与网络安全教育部重点实验室,西安710049

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2011年第5期914-919,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家杰出青年基金(70525004);国家自然科学基金(60736027)

摘　　要：应对危机时,何时启动预案是应急管理中需要解决的关键问题.太湖蓝藻危机代表一类生长速度或传播速度不确定的突发事件,以此为背景基于在线方法,考虑了预案启动后损失立即停止和损失逐渐减少至零两种情形.针对这两种情形,分别设计了应急预案启动策略,并证明它们是最优启动策略.最后对太湖蓝藻危机进行实例计算并分析了策略的竞争性能,研究结果具有一定的实际指导意义和参考价值.It is a key problem to decide the time at which to active a contingency plan in the area of emergency management. Blue-green algae crisis represents a kind of emergency management problem whose growth rate or diffusion speed is unexpected. Based on online method and taking this crisis as the background, this work presented contingency plan start-up strategies for two cases where the loss is ceased immediately and where the loss gradually decreases to zero respectively. These strategies were proved to be optimal. An illustration about blue-green algae crisis in Taihu Lake was given as well. The conclusions provide guidance for decision makers to solve crucial emergencies.

关 键 词：在线方法 应急预案 启动策略 蓝藻危机 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]