认知不确定性的谐波齿轮减速器可靠性分析研究  

Reliability Analysis Approach of Harmonic Drive under Epistemic Uncertainty

作　　者：杜丽[1] 肖宁聪[1] 黄洪钟[1] 何俐萍[1] 李海庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学机械电子工程学院,成都611731

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2011年第3期470-475,共6页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：国防科技工业民用航天科研项目(4.1.3);国家自然科学基金(51075061)

摘　　要：以航天器使用的谐波齿轮减速器为研究对象,在不同信息来源的不确定性处理方法的基础上,研究认知不确定性和客观不确定性同时存在时的概率——非概率可靠性混合模型。建立航天器使用的谐波齿轮减速器的可靠性分析模型,并对模型中的参数进行了灵敏度分析。该方法不用搜索极限状态方程的设计验算点,有较高的鲁棒性。Since the constraints of various objective reasons and conditions,the lack of data exists in reliability engineering widely,especially in reliability-based design of aerospace.There is large amount subjective information exists in initialize data.Traditional reliability analysis method,such as probability-based method,can not handle the situation when both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties are presented in the system,the results acquired by probability-based method have large errors when used in practical engineering,sometimes may acquire a wrong result.This paper is aim at the spaceflight harmonic drive.After the sources of uncertainties and the method how to handle them are introduced,the mixture reliability analysis model of probability and non-probability are presented under both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties,and the reliability analysis model of harmonic drive is established while the sensitivity of parameters is given based on this reliability analysis model.Since the so called most probable point（MPP） search is not required,the proposed method is robust.

关 键 词：客观不确定性 认知不确定性 谐波齿轮 可靠性分析 灵敏度 

分 类 号：V41[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]